Scenarios for 2050 using UPlan Model

Limiting Factors for Disaster Risk:
Flood and Fire — Detail

Click for larger version

This scenario outlines the possible outcome if insurance rates were to increase drastically or be altogether denied for homes in certain areas. The future growth is limited to a smaller area, and is visibly absent in high-risk areas, most noticeably in the area just East of Interstate 5 between Woodland and Corning.

We've taken the FEMA floodplains layer and the "very high" fire hazard layer and used them as masks (no growth can occur there). We then used heavy discouragers for "high" and "moderate" fire hazard areas as well as areas protected by levies.

The demographic inputs for this scenario are the same as the base case, using projections taken from the Department of Finance, 2007[*]. The persons per household figures are derived from the Census 2000 Summary File 1, State and County Summary table, as an average of owner-occupied and renter-occupied numbers. Employees per household numbers are taken from the Department of Finance 2006 county profiles.

Go to Discussion of this scenario

Model Specifics

Group Population 2000 Population 2050 Persons per Household Employees per Household
1 330,162 631,339 2.51 .83
2 344,295 925,817 2.64 .89
3 104,515 212,135 2.67 .72
4 692,331 1,395,136 3.51 1.12
5 1,679,776 3,310,329 2.61 1.26
6 92,532 136,113 2.45 .73
7 3,701 4,441 2.23 .59
8 1,261 10,413 2.39 .42
Attractors Discouragers Masks
Census Blocks with Growth (All but Residential Very Low Estates) "High" Fire Hazard "Very High" Fire Hazard
Highways (All but Residential Very Low Estates) "Moderate" Fire Hazard FEMA 100 Year Floodplains
Ramps (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Levies Lakes
Existing Spheres of Influence (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Vernal Pools (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Rivers and Streams
Major Roads (All but Residential Very Low Estates) California Natural Diversity Database (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Existing Urban
Minor Roads (High and Low Density Commercial and Residential Very Low Estates only) National Wetland Inventory (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Public Lands
Highway 65 (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates)   Sutter Buttes Area (Group 2 only)
City Attractor (Citrus Heights, Rocklin, Lincoln) (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates)    
Group Uplan Land Use Class General Plan Class
1 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
2 High Density Residential High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Low Density Commercial Industrial, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
3 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
4 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
5 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
6 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
7 High Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
8 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Planned Development
Low Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Planned Development
* There are 2 cases where we did not use the DOF population projections: Sierra county, which predicts a decrease in the number of people who will live there in 2050 from the year 2000 (we added 20% to the 2007 number to get to our 2050 number) and Alpine county. The DOF population for Alpine does not factor in development from vacation homes and ski resorts; however, Alpine county planners did establish an estimated "full occupancy" 2050 population based on full build out of existing specific plans and logical growth within the other settled areas.