Scenarios for 2050 using UPlan Model

Maximum Pressure — Detail

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This scenario combines the maximum population pressures of the Population Explosion Scenario with the limiting factors of both the disaster risk scenario and the limited resources scenario. It essentially forces the most amount of development in the smallest area of all the scenarios. Population projections are equal to Population Explosion Scenario, the Department of Finance numbers plus 20%, except in the case of Alpine county, where the population estimate from the Alpine county planners was used instead of the DOF numbers. The same high discouragers are set for high and moderate fire hazard, levies, and areas outside of the groundwater basin that exist for the Groundwater Scenario (limited resources scenario), as well as the same masks — very high fire hazard and floodplains.

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Model Specifics

Group Population 2000 Population 2050 Persons per Household Employees per Household
1 330,162 757,607 2.51 .83
2 344,295 1,110,980 2.64 .89
3 104,515 254,562 2.67 .72
4 692,331 1,674,163 3.51 1.12
5 1,679,776 3,972,395 2.61 1.26
6 92,532 163,336 2.45 .73
7 3,701 4,441 2.23 .59
8 1,261 10,413 2.39 .42
Attractors Discouragers Masks
Census Blocks with Growth (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Areas Outside Groundwater Basin "Very High" Fire Hazard
Highways (All but Residential Very Low Estates) "High" Fire Hazard FEMA 100 Year Floodplains
Ramps (All but Residential Very Low Estates) "Moderate" Fire Hazard Lakes
Existing Spheres of Influence (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Levies Rivers and Streams
Major Roads (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Vernal Pools (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Existing Urban
Minor Roads (High and Low Density Commercial and Residential Very Low Estates only) California Natural Diversity Database (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Public Lands
Highway 65 (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates) National Wetland Inventory (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Sutter Buttes Area (Group 2 only)
City Attractor (Citrus Heights, Rocklin, Lincoln) (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates)    
Group Uplan Land Use Class General Plan Class
1 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
2 High Density Residential High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Medium Density Residential Agriculture, High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
3 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
4 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
5 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
6 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
7 High Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
8 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Low Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Planned Development